AGP Executive Report

Electricity & Heatwave Impact: STEG warned of intermittent rolling power cuts Saturday (5:00 p.m.–10:00 p.m.) across many governorates as demand spikes during record-breaking heat near 50°C. Energy Efficiency & Cooling Demand: Tunisia is moving to develop a financing scheme for energy-efficient air conditioning, with ANME and AfDB seeking a consultancy to speed up adoption and cut peak load. Industrial Jobs & Electronics: German group Deltec confirmed it has acquired Cicor’s Borj Cédria production site and plans a 10,000+ m² expansion, targeting 500+ new jobs. Trade & Imports Pressure: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened in H1 2026 to TND 12.57bn, driven mainly by public imports of energy, grain and sugar. Agribusiness Exports: Deglet Nour date stocks are nearly exhausted after a record 2025/26 harvest (404,000 tonnes), with exports concentrated in Morocco. Startup Funding Gap: Tunisia startups raised just $300,000 in H1 2026, underscoring the country’s thin share of MENA venture capital. Water-Energy Link: A dispute between SONEDE and STEG continues as outages persist, highlighting how electricity constraints ripple into water pumping. Logistics & Digital Commerce: Uber’s planned €41.5/share takeover of Delivery Hero would add platforms including in Tunisia, extending food delivery reach across Africa and the Middle East.

Energy Demand & Grid Stress: Tunisia is facing peak-summer strain after electricity demand jumped by over 30%, forcing STEG to implement rolling power cuts until the heatwave eases. Energy Efficiency Finance: ANME, with AfDB support, is seeking a consultancy to design a financing scheme to speed up adoption of energy-efficient air conditioning, targeting lower peak loads and emissions. Electronics Investment: FIPA-Tunisia says German DELTEC has acquired Cicor’s production site in Borj Cédria, with plans for a new 10,000+ sqm facility and over 500 long-term jobs. Food & Exports: Tunisia’s Deglet Nour date stocks are nearly exhausted after a record 2025/26 harvest (404,000 tonnes), with exports mainly to Morocco and other markets still active. Trade & Public Procurement: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened to TND 12.57bn in H1 2026, with the biggest driver being government purchases—especially energy, grain and sugar. Digital Economy & Education: HEC approved new higher-education cooperation and memoranda of understanding, including partnerships involving Tunis El Manar University. Global Business Moves: Uber is set to acquire Delivery Hero for €41.50/share ($14.8bn), covering Delivery Hero operations including Morocco and Tunisia.

Power & Utilities: Tunisia is resorting to rolling power cuts as a heatwave pushes electricity demand more than 30% above normal, with STEG warning outages could continue until temperatures ease. Electronics & Jobs: FIPA says German DELTEC has acquired Cicor’s production site in Borj Cédria, planning a new 10,000+ sq m facility and more than 500 long-term jobs. Transport & Infrastructure: Tunisia has ordered $86m in trainsets from a Chinese supplier, while CRRC is set to deliver 18 electric trainsets for the Tunis–La Goulette–La Marsa network. Food Safety: Tunisia’s food safety authority says water-bottling is monitored via operator self-checks plus official inspections, warning that summer heat and sunlight can drive plastic components to migrate into stored water. Mining & Budget Oversight: The ARP Finance and Budget Committee reviewed the 2027 draft budget and bills tied to state guarantees for Gafsa Phosphate and the Tunisian Chemical Group, including financing for mining projects and fertiliser imports. Energy Trade: Azerbaijan exported 307,200 tons of crude oil and petroleum products to Tunisia in Jan–May, worth $187.6m, up sharply year-on-year. Cross-Mediterranean Trade & Security: Frontex-linked footage has reignited claims that NGO Sea-Watch coordinated with people-smuggling networks in the central Mediterranean. Digital Finance Research: Tunisia’s CMF signed a partnership with ESC Tunis’s LARIMRAF to boost research, training, and applied studies for the financial market.

Tunisia Power Infrastructure: STEG inaugurated a new high- and medium-voltage electricity substation in Zaafrana (Kairouan South) to boost grid reliability, with initial capacity around 10 MW and plans to expand to about 80 MW, targeting peak-summer demand and supporting local agriculture and industry. Tunisia Food Safety & Consumer Protection: The National Authority for Food Safety says water-bottling plants face dual oversight (operator self-checks plus official inspections), with pre-market checks on water quality and plastic packaging; it flags summer risks when bottles are transported or stored in sunlight, humidity or dust. Tunisia Finance & Research Links: The Financial Market Council (CMF) signed a partnership with ESC Tunis’s LARIMRAF lab to strengthen applied research, training and joint studies for Tunisia’s financial market development. Tunisia Rail Procurement: Tunisia has ordered $86m of trainsets from a Chinese supplier, aimed at upgrading rail capacity. Tunisia Energy Trade: Azerbaijan exported 307,200 tons of crude oil and petroleum products to Tunisia in Jan–May, worth $187.6m, with value up sharply year-on-year. Regional Industry & Climate Resilience: A WEFE Nexus Summit in Kumasi (TRANS-SAHARA project across Ghana, Tunisia and others) focused on practical water-energy-food solutions to build climate resilience. EU Financing Push: The EIB Group approved €17.4bn for energy and infrastructure projects, including solar and electricity grids in Tunisia. Digital Standards: Sri Lanka’s SLAB moved accreditation fully online to improve global recognition—an example of how regulators are modernizing services.

EIB Financing Boost: The European Investment Bank Group approved €17.4bn in new funding to strengthen Europe’s energy autonomy, including €3.7bn for the transition away from fossil fuels and support for Tunisia-linked projects such as solar and electricity grids plus sustainable agriculture. Power Infrastructure: STEG inaugurated a new high- and medium-voltage electricity substation in Zaafrana (Kairouan South) to improve grid reliability, with initial capacity around 10MW rising to about 80MW, aimed at stabilizing supply during peak summer demand for households and productive sectors. Rail Modernisation: Tunisia ordered $86m of trainsets from a Chinese supplier, signaling continued investment in rail capacity and connectivity. Trade & Industry Signals: Tunisia’s Financial Market Council (CMF) partnered with ESC Tunis’s LARIMRAF lab to deepen research and training for the financial market, while separate coverage points to rising foreign firm activity in Libya (construction leading) and Tunisia’s trade/industrial performance pressures. Energy Supply Link: Azerbaijan emerged as a key oil supplier to Tunisia, exporting crude and petroleum products worth $187.6m to Tunisia in Jan–May 2026. Transport Sector Tensions: Tunisia’s transport unions are split over a planned strike, with UGTT urging services to continue while UTICA backs the action. Consumer & Services Oversight: A consumer group linked abuses in the individual taxi sector to ride-hailing app practices, calling for stricter enforcement of existing rules. Agriculture Watch: North Africa faces an emerging locust upsurge, with Morocco under the highest pressure and control operations expanding.

Rail & Infrastructure: Tunisia has ordered 18 new electric trainsets for the northern suburban rail network linking Tunis, La Goulette and La Marsa, a move aimed at upgrading urban mobility. Power & Industry Support: STEG inaugurated a new high- and medium-voltage electricity substation in Zaafrana, Kairouan South, costing about TND 24–25m, starting at ~10 MW and set to expand to ~80 MW to stabilize supply during peak summer demand for households, agriculture and local businesses. Energy Trade: Azerbaijan exported 307,200 tons of crude oil and petroleum products to Tunisia in Jan–May 2026 worth $187.6m, signaling a sharp jump in value versus last year. Finance & Research: Tunisia’s CMF partnered with ESC Tunis’s LARIMRAF lab to boost applied research, training and studies supporting financial market development and regulatory work. Transport Sector Tensions: Tunisia’s transport unions are split over a planned strike, with UGTT urging workers to keep services running while UTICA backs the action tied to tariff commitments. Consumer & Mobility Regulation: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog says abuses in the individual taxi sector are linked to ride-hailing apps and calls for stricter enforcement of existing rules. Digital Transformation: SLAB in Sri Lanka launched a fully digital accreditation system to improve global recognition—an international benchmark Tunisia may watch as it modernizes services.

Desert Locust Watch: Morocco is the main hotspot as desert locusts build up in Northwest Africa, with FAO reporting large numbers of immature winged adults and major control operations in June (87,363 hectares treated, including 33,500 by air), while Algeria, Mauritania and Sahel countries prepare for possible summer migrations. Tunisia Industry Push: Tunisia reported industrial investments of TND 754.6m by end-April 2026 (+18% y/y), with agri-food industries leading at TND 312.9m (+59.7%) and foreign-backed projects up 91% to TND 228.7m. Trade Pressure: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened to 12,569 MD in H1 2026 as exports rose 9% but imports jumped 13.3%; olive oil and refined energy lifted exports, while mining/phosphates fell 19% and textiles dropped 3.5%. Transport Sector Tension: UGTT-linked transport unions urged workers to keep services running against a planned nationwide strike, while UTICA backed the action tied to tariff commitments. Energy & Power: Algeria hit a record electricity demand peak of 21,870 MW during a heat wave, with supplies stable and exports to Tunisia continuing.

Tunisia Industry Watch: Tunisia’s industrial investments rose 18% to TND 754.6m in the first four months of 2026, with 12,934 jobs expected across 745 projects, led by Agri-food (TND 312.9m, +59.7%) and Mechanical & Electrical (TND 217.5m, +9.6%). Trade & Balance of Payments: The trade deficit widened 27% in H1 2026 as imports grew faster than exports, with exports up 9% but textiles down 3.5% and mining/phosphates down 19%; meanwhile the current account deficit narrowed slightly in early 2026, helped by services exports and remittances. Energy & Infrastructure: Tunisia is pushing clean power and EV readiness, with AGIL planning solar panels for retail sites and 35 more EV-charging stations by end-2026 (45 total), while Tunisia also drives Maghreb electricity investment via a $1.4bn link. Agriculture: Grain collection hit 9.1m quintals by July 7, and Kasserine’s cereal harvest is down to about 500,000 quintals after drought and input shortages. Transport & Labor: A split is growing in Tunisia’s transport sector as UGTT urges workers to keep services running against a planned nationwide strike, while UTICA backs the action.

Tunisia Industry Watch: Tunisia’s industrial investments rose to TND 754.6m by end-April 2026 (+18% y/y), with 745 projects expected to create 12,934 jobs, led by agri-food industries (TND 312.9m, +59.7%). Trade & External Accounts: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened to 12,569 MD in H1 2026 as imports grew faster (+13.3%) than exports (+9%), pushing the coverage rate down to 73.4%. Energy & Transport: AGIL plans to equip all its fuel distribution sites with photovoltaic panels and has already installed 10 EV-charging stations, with 35 more due by end-2026. Agriculture: Grain collection reached about 9.1m quintals by July 7, with Béja leading at 2m quintals; Kasserine’s barley harvest is estimated near 500,000 quintals after drought and fertilizer shortages. Regional Energy Links: Tunisia is driving Maghreb power investment via a $1.4bn electricity link, while EU solar hit a record 25% share of generation in June. Transport Labor Tensions: Tunisia’s transport unions split as UGTT urges workers to keep services running against a planned nationwide strike.

Industrial Investment Pulse: Tunisia’s industrial investments climbed to TND 754.6m by end-April 2026 (+18%), with 745 projects and 12,934 expected jobs, led by agri-food (+59.7%) and mechanical/electrical (+9.6%). Trade & Competitiveness: Exports rose to 34,645 MD in H1 2026 (+9%) but imports jumped faster to 47,214 MD (+13.3%), widening the trade deficit to 12,569 MD and lowering the coverage rate to 73.4%. Agriculture Supply Chain: Grain collection reached about 9.1m quintals by July 7, with Béja leading (2m). Livestock Recovery Plan: Tunisia launched a 2026-2030 strategy to rebuild livestock after drought, using budget funds plus external partners and digital monitoring. Energy & Transport Tensions: Tunisia’s transport unions are split over a planned strike, while AGIL plans solar PV for retail fuel sites and is expanding EV charging to 45 points by end-2026. Regional Trade Rules: A UN-backed study warns only 14 of 22 Arab states are WTO members, risking missed integration gains.

Tunisia Livestock Recovery Plan (2026–2030): Tunisia has launched a five-year programme to rebuild its livestock herd after drought, targeting cattle and small ruminants with funding from the state budget, the Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Development Fund and partners, including support for small farmers to access loans and subsidies for breeding purebred heifers and calves. Agriculture Shock in Kasserine: The cereal harvest in Kasserine is down sharply, with barley production estimated at about 500,000 quintals (vs 650,000 last season), blamed on drought, delayed seed supplies, seed quality issues, and fertilizer shortages. Phosphate & Food Security Angle: A new geopolitical read on Morocco–Tunisia phosphate links the market shake-up to Western fertilizer security, positioning Tunisia as a logistics and diversification hub in the Maghreb. Auto Industry Upgrading: Tunisia’s automotive sector is pushing beyond component manufacturing toward higher-value integration and an electric mobility ecosystem, aiming to position the country as a regional production platform. Tunindex & Market Signals: The TUNINDEX rose 0.82% to a new all-time high, while sector movers included gains in banking and pharma and declines in sanitary ware and car dealership shares. World Bank Caution: The World Bank sees modest recovery but warns Tunisia still faces high debt, weak job creation, limited external financing and stalled IMF talks. Trade & Diplomacy: Tunisia also moved on bilateral cooperation talks (including Nigeria) and continued trade alignment efforts, including updates to rules of origin and transport terms in regional trade frameworks.

Tunisia Agriculture: Kasserine’s cereal harvest is down sharply: barley output is estimated at about 500,000 quintals (70% of the campaign), down from 650,000 last season, blamed on drought, late seed supply, seed quality issues, and fertilizer shortages (DAP and ammonium nitrate), with yields in rain-fed areas often below 20 quintals per hectare. Tunisia Livestock Recovery: Tunisia has launched a 2026–2030 plan to rebuild its livestock herd after drought, using a mix of budget funds, the Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Development Fund, and partners; support targets small farmers’ access to loans and subsidies for breeding purebred heifers and calves, alongside digital livestock monitoring and stronger animal health services. Tunisia Economy & Markets: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is modest (2.5% growth in 2025) but fragile, citing high debt, limited external financing, and stalled IMF talks. Tunindex Watch: The Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, led by gains in SIPHAT and BNA, while SANIMED and ENNAKL AUTOMOBILES fell. Trade & Industry: Tunisia is pushing its auto sector toward higher-value manufacturing, aiming to build an electric mobility ecosystem and move beyond spare parts toward deeper integration. Consumer Protection: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, including excessive price hikes and unfulfilled services, calling for regulation and price ceilings by region. Regional Shipping Risk: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice after IRGC warning shots, raising uncertainty for fertilizer and shipping flows.

Phosphate & Food Security: A new geopolitical push around phosphate supply puts Tunisia back in the spotlight as a logistics and diversification hub, with the Maghreb corridor framed as a way to stabilize fertilizer access for the US and Europe. Livestock Recovery Plan: Tunisia launched a 2026–2030 programme to rebuild its drought-hit livestock herd, using budget funds, a competitiveness fund and partners, with support for small farmers and subsidies tied to herd renewal. Transport of Phosphate: Tunisia’s rail haul of phosphate fell 23% in H1 2026 to about 601,000 tons, even as a planned railway rehabilitation loan targets upgrades for the phosphate lines. Tunindex Update: The Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70, led by gains in SIPHAT and BNA, while SANIMED and Ennakl Automobiles lagged. Automotive Shift: Tunisia’s auto sector is moving toward higher-value manufacturing, aiming to deepen integration and build an electric mobility ecosystem. Consumer Watch: Tunisia’s consumer guidance group warns of summer rental abuses, calling for regulation on pricing and service transparency. World Bank Outlook: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is modest and job creation remains weak, with debt and financing constraints still weighing on the outlook.

Phosphate & Food Security: With Beijing freezing phosphate exports until August 2026, a new Tunisia–Morocco push is being framed as a strategic logistics corridor to secure fertilizers for the US and Europe, putting mining and rail-linked supply back at the center of “national security” thinking. Rail & Mining Logistics: Tunisia’s SNCFT says phosphate transport fell 22.95% in H1 2026 to about 601,000 tons, despite an approved AFESD loan to modernize dedicated rail lines (including Line 21 linking Gafsa to Gabès). Livestock Recovery Plan: Tunisia launched a 2026–2030 roadmap to rebuild cattle and small ruminants after drought, with funding via the national budget and the Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Fund, plus digital monitoring and stronger animal health services. Auto Industry Upgrade: Tunisia is shifting its auto sector toward high-value manufacturing and an electric mobility ecosystem, aiming to move from parts production to deeper integration and EV-related capabilities. Capital Markets Watch: The Tunis Stock Exchange’s Tunindex hit a new all-time high, while the annual review shows 2025 profits up 7.2% overall for listed firms. Consumer & Tourism Pressure: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, calling for clearer rules on pricing and promised services. Trade & Diplomacy: Tunisia’s foreign minister discussed expanding cooperation with Nigeria in ICT, healthcare, medical tourism, manufacturing and petroleum, while Tunisia also met the Netherlands’ ambassador on future projects. Geopolitics Affecting Trade: The Strait of Hormuz was reported closed by Iran’s IRGC Navy, raising fresh uncertainty for fertilizer and shipping flows.

Tunindex Watch: The Tunis Stock Exchange’s Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, led by gains at SIPHAT (+4.4%) and BNA (+3.1%), while SANIMED (-4.3%) and ENNAKL Automobiles (-1.7%) dragged. Public Finance Stress Test: A review of the BCT’s 2025 annual report flags a risky 2026 outlook, noting growth assumptions tied to government projections and fuel-subsidy cuts that could widen pressure on households and industry. World Bank Outlook: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is underway (2.5% growth in 2025) but remains fragile, with high debt, limited external financing, and weak job creation for young people. Automotive Upgrade: Tunisia is shifting its auto industry toward higher-value manufacturing, aiming to build an electric mobility ecosystem and move from parts production to deeper integration. Trade & Industry Links: Tunisia’s foreign ministry discussed cooperation with Nigeria in high-value sectors (ICT, healthcare, medical tourism, manufacturing, petroleum), while talks with the Netherlands focused on agriculture, water, environment, and jobs. Phosphate Logistics: Rail transport of phosphate fell 23% in the first half of 2026, despite approved financing for railway rehabilitation dedicated to phosphate. Consumer Protection: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, citing excessive price hikes and unfulfilled services, calling for clearer rules and price ceilings. Customs Crackdown: Customs seized 78.4 kg of cocaine, 17 kg of gold, 72 kg of silver, and millions in smuggled goods and currency in the first half of 2026.

Tunisia’s Auto Push: Tunisia is shifting its automotive industry toward high-value manufacturing, aiming to move from component production to a fuller electric mobility ecosystem as EVs reshape demand. World Bank Watch: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is modest (2.5% growth in 2025) but threatened by high public debt, stalled IMF talks, and weak job creation. Trade & Industry Links: Tunisia also keeps strengthening external ties, including Nigeria and the Netherlands, while Morocco–UK rules of origin updates show how regional supply chains may need to adapt. Phosphate Logistics: Tunisia’s rail transport of phosphate fell 23% in the first half of 2026, despite approved financing for line rehabilitation. Corporate Performance: The Tunis Stock Exchange reports 2025 profits up 7.2% to 3.179 billion dinars, with Tunindex20 driving most gains. Consumer Protection: A Tunisian consumer group warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, calling for regulation and price ceilings. Environment & Plastics: Tunisia moves to ban single-use plastic bags and plans industrial support to convert production lines, backed by extended producer responsibility. Customs Crackdown: Customs seized major quantities of drugs, gold, foreign currency, and contraband goods in early 2026 operations.